REQUESTED OPINION: OIL SUPPLY & SKYROCKETING PRICES
Dear Reader,
For this request, I have decided to start my contribution by providing some facts and figures on the "global oil." At the end, a concise recommendation is given.
One has to firstly understand the foundation or basics on oil production, exportation, consumption, and concomitant economies of the key countries in the oil business.
What is OPEC+:
*Is an intergovernmental organisation of oil-producing nations. It was founded in September 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The current membership is at 13 and has 10 other members. Thus, it is now known as OPEC+
It has to be noted that some of the world's leading oil producers are not members of OPEC. These include the USA, Russia, China, and Canada
OPEC's oil production:
*OPEC+ countries possess approximately 80% of the world's known oil reserves
*Its membership produces approximately 38% of the world's crude oil.
The top 5 oil producing countries (2023- bpd= barrels per day) are:
(1) USA: 20,213,000 bpd (20% of world's share of production)
(2) Saudi Arabia: 12,144,000 (12%)
(3) Russia: 10,938,000 (11%)
(4) Canada: 5,694,000 (6%)?
(5) China: 5,119,000 bpd
(6) Iraq: 4,553,000 bpd
*In May 2023, OPEC+ decided to cut oil production by 1.6 million barrels per day for this year (2023).
The largest exporters of oil in the world:
(1) Saudi Arabia
Dec 2022: 7,363,640 bpd
2021: It accounted for 14.5% of the world's oil export
(2) Russia: 11.8%
(3) Canada: 8.54%
(4) Iraq: 7.57%
(5) USA: 7.11%
The top 5 highest consumers of oil in the world:
(1) United States: 19,690,000: 20.4% share of the world
(2) China: 15.7%
(3) India: 4.8%
(4) Russia: 3.8%
(5) Japan: 3.5%
The most influential economies in the global oil business:
*From the above facts and figures, the leading key players in the global oil business are Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, USA, and, of course, all of the OPEC+ nations.
Boosting National Economic Growth & Cutting down inflation:
*In July 2023, the IMF cut 2023 Saudi Arabia's GDP growth projection to 1.9% from 2.1%, reflecting the impact of prolonged oil production cuts.
In May 2023, Saudi Arabia decided to cut its oil supply by 500,000 barrels per day.
*Iraq has decided to reduce over 200,000 bpd until the end of 2023.
*Russia will extend its production cut of 50,000 bpd until the end of 2023.
*USA: The annual inflation rate increased to 3.2% in July 2023 from 3% in June 2023.
Thus, the oil- producing countries, including those in Africa, are struggling to boost their respective national economic growths and cutting down inflations. The most plausible undertaking for them is cutting down oil production to bring about higher prices of their commodity (oil)
Moreover, world oil demand is getting higher due to increased oil use in electricity generation, increased summer air travels, and increased production in the Chinese petrochemical industries.
It is now estimated that global oil demand will increase to reach 102.2 million barrels a day in 2023. In 2022, the world oil production was approximately 80.75 million barrels per day.
Consequently, it is projected that oil prices are on the increase at least until the end of this year and may go into 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s forecast is that Brent crude oil prices will average US dollars 86 in the second half of 2023.
Oil supply in Tanzania:
In brief, Tanzania has to do the following to make sure that the oil supply is uninterrupted and prices remain affordable:
(1) Strong local currency (Tsh) against hard currencies, including the US dollar
(2) Diversify oil market supply
(3) TIPER with modern technologies to process imported crude oil (are we importing crude oil or processed petroleum?)
(4) Establishment of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the hands of the government
(5) Oil & Gas exploration: do we have oil in Tanzania?
(6) Gas Economy: a robust and a reliable economic engine supporting and strengthening other facets of the national economy
Sospeter Muhongo
*HonFGS, HonFGSA, HonRFCAGS
*Officier, de l'ordre des Palmes académiques
Date:
Wednesday, 6.9.2023
CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING, AND CARBON TRADING SYSTEM
eIt is now very undeniable that global warming is a reality and is caused by global climate change. It is also well documented that human-induced hazards and disasters are affecting all humanity around the world.
The last three weeks' extreme weather conditions are ubiquitous on the Earth's surface - extreme heat and concomitant deadly heat waves, wildfires, damaging winds, flooding, landslides, ocean waters with high temperatures above normal by a magnitude of 3-5°C (e.g. southern Europe), etc.
Today, the Mediterranean region, especially the Islands of Greece (e.g., Rhodes and Corfu), Italy (Sardinia and Sicily), Algeria and Tunisia, is a vivid testimony for human-induced global warming with temperatures reaching record heat of about 44-46°C.
The world's highest recorded temperatures are 56.7°C in California's Death Valley in 1913 and 55°C in Kebili, Tunisia, in 1931!
Extreme heat has always impacted the socio-economic systems of all nations around the world!
What causes climate change and global warming?
These two are interwoven. Global warming is a derivative of climate change and vice-versa. They both result from shifts or changes in temperature and weather patterns. The causes are both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and human-induced (i.e., anthropologic activities - deforestation, use of nitrogen-containing fertilizers, increased livestock farming).
Since the 1800s, human activities have been the main cause of climate change! This is brought about by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases [carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and water vapour (H2O)] in the Earth's atmosphere, through primarily burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal).
Climate scientists argue that before the industrial revolution, and for approximately 6,000 years of human civilization, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels were low and consistently about 280 ppm.
The period 1850-1900 is considered as the "pre-industrial," and since then, humans have generated approximately 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), which continue warming the atmosphere.
Thus, from the above facts, there is a strong positive correlation between population growth, industrialisation, and carbon emissions.
In 1850, the world's population was about 1.2 billion people (Africa: 103 million), and today, the world's population is at 8.05 billion (Africa: 1.46 billion). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are estimated at approximately 2,500 billion metric tons (GtCO₂), since 1850!
The 2019 top three greenhouse gas (GhG) emitters were:
*China: 10,065 million tons (27% of the world's GhG)
*USA: 5,416 million tons (11%)
*India: 2,654 million tons (6.6%)
The Kyoto Protocol:
On 11.12.1997, Kyoto Protocol was adopted. This protocol was the first international treaty aiming to cut down greenhouse gas emissions, mostly by developed countries - thus, to slow down climate change. It came into force in 2005 and was replaced by the Paris Agreement - regarded as a shared climate crisis initiative by all countries in the world.
The Paris Agreement:
This Agreement was entered into force on 4.11. 2016. It is a global framework aiming at limiting global warming to well below 2°C and putting in efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Each country is obliged to publish greenhouse gas reduction targets. The prime objective here is to negate catastrophic climate change with its negative consequences!
This Agreement also aims to strengthen and support countries' ability (especially the poorer ones) to deal with the impacts of climate change.
Carbon Trading System
With reference to the international legally binding Paris Agreement on climate change, all the 196 Parties (or countries, COP 21), which adopted it on 12.12.2015, are obliged to work towards the achievement of its goals.
The carbon emissions trading system is a platform for international partnerships aimed to address climate crisis by reducing carbon emissions. It revolves around carbon credit offsets for the pledged carbon (or GhG) emissions of companies and governments.
Carbon (or GhG) trade works as follows: one (1) carbon credit is earned through the destruction, reduction, or capture of one (1) verifiable metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2). The earned carbon credits may be sold to the markets - countries where reduction of carbon (or GhG) is costly.
The prices for the carbon credits are determined by the contemporary carbon credit markets, i.e., companies and investors buying and selling carbon credits. Thus, the issue of supply and demand is intact, and prices may reach USD 80 per metric ton.
Africa's climate change experts may have the wit to persuade their respective countries to enter into this lucrative global carbon trade business.
Sospeter Muhongo
Officier, Ordre des Palmes Académiques
Thursday, 27.7.2023
TANZANIA HAS UNIQUE LOCATIONS CALLING FOR WORLD CLASS SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS
1. Olduvai George
(location for tracing human evolution)
2. Ol Doinyo Lengai
(location for an active non-explosive volcanism producing natrocarbonatite lava)
3. Tendaguru
(location where bones of a Dinosaur were excavated and later assembled in the Berlin Museum)
Those are the three world's famous Tanzanian locations, calling for international earth sciences research partnerships.
RESEARCH has never come to a halt! It ought to be in continuum.
Please go through the latest discoveries in Zimbabwe.....and get breaking news on a plant-eating dinosaur of an age of 230 million years, the oldest ever found in the world!
Any latest news from our unexcavated Tendaguru Dinosaur bones?
Sospeter Muhongo
Monday, 5.9.2022
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2335385-two-legged-dinosaur-from-zimbabwe-is-the-oldest-ever-found-in-africa/
THE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR HYDROGEN
This commodity may be new to the African economies, and hence, we would like to know the uses of hydrogen in modern economies.
The 10 common uses of hydrogen are:
1. hydrogen fuel cells are used to generate electricity and heat. It has very high energy content by weight - a very special energy characteristic!
2. fertilizer production
(ammonia manufacture, consuming about two-thirds of the world's hydrogen production)
3. methanol production
4. petroleum refining
5. rocket fuel
6. filling balloons
7. production of hydrochloric acid
8. welding and reduction of metallic ores
9. fuel for transportation
10. hydrogenation of oils and fats
*Let us put aside the uses of hydrogen's isotopes, including tritium (3H) which is produced in nuclear reactors and may be used to produce hydrogen bombs.
MAIN SOURCES FOR THE COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF HYDROGEN
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe. It is found in the Sun, in most Stars. The planet Jupiter is made up of mostly hydrogen.
Besides it's vast abundance, hydrogen makes up only about 0.14% of Earth's crust by weight, and on the Earth it occurs in large quantities in the atmosphere, is a component of water (hydrogen combined with oxygen) in oceans, lakes, rivers, icesheets, glaciers, etc
Production of Hydrogen
*The basic concept used in its production is that of its separation from other elements in compounds (or molecules) containing it.
Thus, the 4 main sources of hydrogen are:
1. Natural Gas
(method: steam- methane reforming)
2. Water
(method: hydrolysis, splitting water using electricity)
3. Coal
4. Oil
GLOBAL DEMARD & MARKET FOR HYDROGEN
In 2020, the demand for hydrogen was 87 million metric tonnes and projections indicate that it (demand) will reach 500-680 million metric tonnes by 2050.
Its (hydrogen) market was valued at US$ 130 billion in 2020 to 2021, and may grow up to 9.2% annually till 2030.
*Today, CHINA is the largest producer of hydrogen, at approx 25 million metric tonnes, more than a quarter of the world's production!
China produces hydrogen from:
*Coal: 60%
*Natural Gas: 25%
*Feedstocks in refineries and other chemical facilities
China is also the biggest consumer of hydrogen in the world, at more than 24 million metric tonnes annually.
Will Africa have a stake in global hydrogen market?
Will Africa use its natural resources, e.g. water, coal, oil and natural gas to produce hydrogen for the global market?
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
Officer, Ordre Palmes Academìques
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of London, (est. 1807)
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of America (est. 1888)
*Honorary Reserach Fellow of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (est. 1956)
*Editor-in Chief Emeritus of the Journal of African Earth Sciences, published by Elsevier.
Date:
Friday, 2.9.2022
THE UNCONVENTIONAL HYDROCARBON RESOURCES - CHINA INTENSIFYING EXPLORATION OF SHALE OIL & GAS
Background Information:
(i) Shale oil is the unconventional type of oil, and may be produced alongside the conventional crude oil, e.g. in USA
(ii) The global reserves of shale oil is estimated to be at least 8 trillion barrels.
(iii) The 3 countries with the largest shale oil reserves are: USA (78.2 billion barrels), RUSSIA (74.6 billion barrels) and CHINA
CHINA's total estimate from 80 deposits located in 47 shale oil basins is 720 billion tonnes! Of this, the proven shale oil reserves is about 36 billion tonnes.
AFRICA has also to go for both on-and off-shore non- conventional shale oil and gas reserves.
Please read below - the Chinese discovery which was announced yesterday (Thursday, 28.7.2022)
CNOOC shale well in Beibuwan Basin flowing with oil, gas
By Global Times
Published:
Jul 28, 2022 11:27 PM
China's National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) announced on Thursday successful tapping of flows of oil and gas out of an offshore shale oil exploration well, the first drilled shale oil well offshore in China, a major breakthrough in the country's offshore shale oil drilling that will reduce reliance on imports and improve energy security.
Exploration well Weiye-1, located at the southwestern trough of the Beibuwan Basin in the South China Sea, tested daily production of 20 cubic meters of oil and 1,589 cubic meters of natural gas, the Shanghai Securities Journal reported.
According to estimates, the shale oil resources in the entire Beibuwan Basin are about 1.2 billion tons, showing good exploration prospects.
The announcement came after the National Energy Administration held a meeting on July 24 calling for improved oil and gas exploration capacity, as part of China's efforts to ensure adequate supplies in dealing with external uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and worldwide inflation.
China is an import-dependent country in terms of oil and gas, with more than 70 percent of the oil coming from abroad while the successful tapping of the commercial flows of oil and gas from the well is a step further toward higher energy security by reducing import reliance, industry experts said.
"The technical difficulty of shale oil extraction is relatively high, and the cost is elevated…how to reduce the cost of production ... is always a question," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Thursday.
The success of the first offshore shale oil drilling marks the realization of the independent exploration and development of China's offshore shale oil and gas resources with self-developed technology, said Xu Changgui, general manager of the Exploration Department of CNOOC, the paper.cn reported on Thursday.
According to incomplete statistics, the recoverable reserves of shale gas in China exceed 30 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world, domestic news outlet jiemian.com reported earlier.
The Weiye-1drilling breakthrough represents a marked technical progress, but the next step is to stand the test of economics, Lin said.
The above information is sent to you by:
Sospeter Muhongo
Honorary Research Fellow of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (HRFCAGS)
Date:
Friday, 29.7.2022
THE 2022 FINAL LIST OF 50 CRITICAL MINERALS FOR USA
The Geological Survey of America (USGS) has published the final list of the 2022 critical minerals required for the socio-economic prosperity of that country.
USGS was established on 3rd March 1879. It has a budget of US$ 1.7 billion (2023 Financial Year) and has approximately 8,670 employees.
The final list shown below is based on the following demands:
(i) The 4th Industrial Revolution. The 4IR is driven by availability of reliable and unequivocal abundant DATA which are obligatory for accelerated innovations, market strategies, new products, new services and their monetizations.
(ii) The Third Industrial Revolution. The 3IR which began in the late 1900s is still going on and is intermingling with the 4IR. It is characterized by wide-spread DIGITIZATION and AUTOMATION. Computers, internets, electronics and nuclear energy are a part of the salient characteristics of the 3IR.
(iii) some examples of 4IR and 3IR commodities are given below the list of the 50 critical minerals of USA
The list of critical minerals
*The 2022 final list of critical minerals presented by USGS is as follows: aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barite, beryllium, bismuth, cerium, cesium, chromium, cobalt, dysprosium, erbium, europium, fluorspar, gadolinium, gallium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, holmium, indium, iridium, lanthanum, lithium, lutetium, magnesium, manganese, neodymium, nickel, niobium, palladium, platinum, praseodymium, rhodium, rubidium, ruthenium, samarium, scandium, tantalum, tellurium, terbium, thulium, tin, titanium, tungsten, vanadium, ytterbium, yttrium, zinc, and zirconium.
EXAMPLES:
(i) Manufacture of electric-vehicle batteries
Minerals required for the manufacture of electric-vehicles' (EVs) batteries, include, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, and graphite
(ii) Manufacture of solar panels
Minerals required for the manufacture of solar panels include, cadmium telluride, cobalt, manganese, gallium, indium, copper, selenium, arsenic and germanium.
*pure arsenic is used to produce gallium-arsenide semiconductors for solar cells. In 2018, USA imported all the required arsenic.
(iii) Manufacture of wind turbines
Minerals required for the manufacture of the wind turbines include, iron, cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, aluminium, manganese, titanium, graphite, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.
(iv) Manufacture of materials required by the aerospace industry
The list is very long. One example to cite here is the importance of TITANIUM.
Titanium is needed in spacecraft because of its strength. It is as strong as steel but is 45% lighter than steel. It is used to make very strong alloys that can withstand the extreme temperatures of space. Thus, it is alloyed with iron, molybdenum and aluminium for the manufacture of spacecraft facilities.
The world is searching for minerals required in the 3IR and 4IR, including materials required in the energies for green economies, i.e. manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines.
Australia is on the race and says the following insofar as its critical minerals are concerned:
*Australia’s resources of critical minerals like antimony, cobalt, lithium, manganese ore, niobium, tungsten and vanadium, rank in the top 5 globally.
*Australia is the world’s top producer of lithium, rutile and the second largest producer of zircon and rare earth elements.
*Australia has the world’s largest resources of rutile (titanium), zircon (zirconium) and tantalum.
*Australia has potential for more undiscovered minerals. Well-established mining regions cover just 20% of Australia. The remaining 80% is largely under-explored.
The material demands for the 3IR and the 4IR, including demands for renewable energies' facilities, have to invigorate the competitiveness of Africa's geological surveys in order to bring the continent (Africa) into this prosperity race.
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of America (est.1888)
*Former Vice President of the Commission of the Geological Map of the World (CGMW)
Date:
Saturday, 2.7.2022
THE 2022 FINAL LIST OF 50 CRITICAL MINERALS FOR USA
The Geological Survey of America (USGS) has published the final list of the 2022 critical minerals required for the socio-economic prosperity of that country.
USGS was established on 3rd March 1879. It has a budget of US$ 1.7 billion (2023 Financial Year) and has approximately 8,670 employees.
The final list shown below is based on the following demands:
(i) The 4th Industrial Revolution. The 4IR is driven by availability of reliable and unequivocal abundant DATA which are obligatory for accelerated innovations, market strategies, new products, new services and their monetizations.
(ii) The Third Industrial Revolution. The 3IR which began in the late 1900s is still going on and is intermingling with the 4IR. It is characterized by wide-spread DIGITIZATION and AUTOMATION. Computers, internets, electronics and nuclear energy are a part of the salient characteristics of the 3IR.
(iii) some examples of 4IR and 3IR commodities are given below the list of the 50 critical minerals of USA
The list of critical minerals
*The 2022 final list of critical minerals presented by USGS is as follows: aluminum, antimony, arsenic, barite, beryllium, bismuth, cerium, cesium, chromium, cobalt, dysprosium, erbium, europium, fluorspar, gadolinium, gallium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, holmium, indium, iridium, lanthanum, lithium, lutetium, magnesium, manganese, neodymium, nickel, niobium, palladium, platinum, praseodymium, rhodium, rubidium, ruthenium, samarium, scandium, tantalum, tellurium, terbium, thulium, tin, titanium, tungsten, vanadium, ytterbium, yttrium, zinc, and zirconium.
EXAMPLES:
(i) Manufacture of electric-vehicle batteries
Minerals required for the manufacture of electric-vehicles' (EVs) batteries, include, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, and graphite
(ii) Manufacture of solar panels
Minerals required for the manufacture of solar panels include, cadmium telluride, cobalt, manganese, gallium, indium, copper, selenium, arsenic and germanium.
*pure arsenic is used to produce gallium-arsenide semiconductors for solar cells. In 2018, USA imported all the required arsenic.
(iii) Manufacture of wind turbines
Minerals required for the manufacture of the wind turbines include, iron, cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, aluminium, manganese, titanium, graphite, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.
(iv) Manufacture of materials required by the aerospace industry
The list is very long. One example to cite here is the importance of TITANIUM.
Titanium is needed in spacecraft because of its strength. It is as strong as steel but is 45% lighter than steel. It is used to make very strong alloys that can withstand the extreme temperatures of space. Thus, it is alloyed with iron, molybdenum and aluminium for the manufacture of spacecraft facilities.
The world is searching for minerals required in the 3IR and 4IR, including materials required in the energies for green economies, i.e. manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines.
Australia is on the race and says the following insofar as its critical minerals are concerned:
*Australia’s resources of critical minerals like antimony, cobalt, lithium, manganese ore, niobium, tungsten and vanadium, rank in the top 5 globally.
*Australia is the world’s top producer of lithium, rutile and the second largest producer of zircon and rare earth elements.
*Australia has the world’s largest resources of rutile (titanium), zircon (zirconium) and tantalum.
*Australia has potential for more undiscovered minerals. Well-established mining regions cover just 20% of Australia. The remaining 80% is largely under-explored.
The material demands for the 3IR and the 4IR, including demands for renewable energies' facilities, have to invigorate the competitiveness of Africa's geological surveys in order to bring the continent (Africa) into this prosperity race.
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of America (est.1888)
*Former Vice President of the Commission of the Geological Map of the World (CGMW)
Date:
Saturday, 2.7.2022
AFRICA'S EARTH RESOURCES TO ACCELERATE RESUSCITATION & GROWTH OF OUR ECONOMIES
The Global GDP for 2022 is estimated at US$ 102.4 trillion and that of last year (2021) was at US$ 94.9 trillion. Global GROWTH forecast shows that it will slow from an estimated 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023.
In 2021, GDP (combined) of the 54 African countries was estimated at around US$ 2.7 trillion in nominal terms (IMF). This is less than that of France (US$ 2.9 trillion, 7th in the world) and India
(US$ 3.3 trilion, 6th in the world).
IMF projections for 2022 GDP per capita of some African countries are as follows: Seychelles 17, 693 US $ per person per annum, Mauritius (8,892), Djibouti (3,775), Zimbabwe (2,301), Kenya (2,252), Comoros (1,371), Zambia (1,330), Tanzania (1,260) and Uganda (US$ 1,060 per person per annum)
WHICH OF THE AFRICA'S EARTH RESOURCES CAN ACCELERATE ITS GROWTH?
Earth resources of almost all types are abundant on the African continent and its ocean floors. This is because Africa has rocks of all ages, spanning from about 4 billion years to present. Thus, it possesses all known resources which were formed in that time range (about 4 billion years ago to today).
EARTH RESOURCES ON HIGH DEMAND
If we consider a 20- year horizon, Earth Resources on high demand are for:
^Electric vehicles
^Aerospace
^Defense
^Clean energy
^Industries & Transport
^Tools for the 4th Industrial Revolution
Consequently, the following Earth Resouces are on high demand:
(1) HYDROCARBONS
By December 2021, the world's proved OIL RESERVES was estimated at 1,724.5 billion barrels while its (oil) worldwide demand per day in 2022 is estimated at 99.4 million barrels and in 2025 is at 103.2 million barrels per day.
The global NATURAL GAS RESERVES are now estimated at 7,257 tcf
The IEA has reported that the GLOBAL GAS demand in 2022 is forecasted at 4.086 Tcm (trillion cubic metres)
The Saudi-led cartel, in its 15th Annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) of 1 October 2021, said that Global natural gas demand is projected to increase from 64.2 million boe/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2020 to 85.7 million boe/d in 2045.
The above described global demands for hydrocarbons ought to compel Africa to increase its world's market shares in those two commodities.
The 2020 report on the estimate for Africa's crude oil reserves revealed 125.8 billion barrels.
Natural gas reserves in Africa are estimated to be over 630 trillion cubic feet.
As we all know Africa is still poorly explored, and thus, we are very certain of new hydrocarbon deposits to be discovered in the near future!
(2) CRITICAL OR STRATEGIC METALS
For the reasons mentioned above, the following are metals on very high demand:
Cobalt, chromium, lithium, palladium, cerium, nickel, zinc, manganese, gallium, germanium and indium.
Some of those mentioned above do appear on the list of the highly demanded RARE EARTH ELEMENTS (REE) and PGM (platinum group metals) groups.
Also on demand is tantalum, tungsten, titanium, iron, copper, silver, aluminium and tin.
While traversing across the Africa's terrains looking for the above mentioned technology metals, we should now start looking for MANGANESE NODULES on our SEA BEDS, and also estimate heavy minerals (HM) found in SAND DEPOSITS.
Manganese (Mn) nodules are ploymetallic and contain metals such as iron, manganese, copper, nickel and cobalt.
Sand deposits or also known as monazite sands contain metals on high demand such as zirconium, titanium, thorium, tungsten, and REE.
(3) HELIUM GAS
The novelty of this gas is in its boiling point of -268.9 °C. This means that liquid helium cools superconducting magnets used in aerospace, health and reserach facilities.
NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance) spectrometers can not function without helium!
The global demand for helium stands at 6 billion cubic feet per annum with an increase rate of 3-5% annually.
It is estimated that the 2023 global helium market will be US$ 15.7 billion, with NASA (USA) being the biggest consumer, about 100 million cubic feet per annum.
Consequently, AFRICA'S HELIUM GAS may also be used to bring about the required accelerated economic growth.
(4) GOLD & GEMTONES
These two commodities are ubiquitous on the African continent and thus, they also should be utilized to accelerate growth.
Africa with approximately 13% of the known global gold reserves, is the third-largest gold producing continent in the world. Ghana, the leading producer on the continent produced approximately 150 metric tons of gold in 2020 out of the 663 metric tons produced by the continent in that year.
GOLD RESERVES IN AFRICA'S CENTRAL BANKS
The Africa's Central Banks have to establish GOLD RESERVES for the following benefits: (i) a reserve asset alongside government bonds, (ii) enhancing the strength and safeguarding the values of national currencies and (iii) a very reliable hedge against inflation.
Countries with largest GOLD RESERVES, as of September 2021, include: (i) USA 8,133 tons, (ii) Germany (3,359), (iii) Italy, 2,452, (iv) France (2,436), (v) Russia (2,302), and (vi) China (1,948 tons).
From the above, it is evident that African countries have to increase their GOLD RESERVES. Algeria has 174 tons, South Africa (125), Mauritius (12.4), Ghana (8.7), Mozambique (3.9), Burundi (0.03) and Kenya (0.02 tons)
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICA
In 2021, The World Bank (WB) reported that Africa's real GDP was projected to grow by 3.4%.
The World Bank's latest Africa's macroeconomic outlook estimates growth at 3.6% in 2022
The above mentioned AFRICA'S EARTH RESOURCES are now very vital to resuscitate our economies and bring about accelerated growth for creation of wealth and jobs to the 1.4 billion people on the continent (as of today, 2.5.2022). The continent will have a population of 1.7 billion people in 2030.
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Former Vice President of the Commission of the Geological Map of the World.
*Former President of the Geological Society of Africa
*Fellow and Life Member of the Geological Society of Africa
*Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of the Journal of African Earth Sciences, Elsevier (publisher)
Date:
Monday, 2.5.2022
FLOATING LNG PLANTS
There are 2 types of floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facilities/plants whose functions are:
*Type 1: to liquefy natural gas down to approximately -161.5°C
*Type 2: regasification of LNG into gaseous form, allowing it to be injected into pipeline distribution networks
EXAMPLES:
MOZAMBIQUE FLNG, Type1
Eni’s (Italy) Coral-Sul FLNG arrived in the Rovuma Basin, northern Mozambique on 3 January 2022 and production will commence in the second half of 2022. It came from Samsung Heavy Industries’ shipyard in South Korea.
The FLNG vessel, with a capacity of 3.4 million tonnes of LNG per year, will produce gas from the Coral offshore gas field.
GERMANY TO ACQUIRE FLNG IMPORT TERMINALS, Type 2
[NEWS, BERLIN], 16 April 2022: Germany has released nearly 3 billion euros (S$4.38 billion) to acquire floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals, the finance ministry said Friday (Apr 15), as it seeks to move away from dependence on Russian gas.
"Dependence on Russian energy imports must be reduced quickly and sustainably," tweeted Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
"Floating LNG terminals make an important contribution to this, for which we must provide funding," he added.
A total of 2.94 billion euros has been made available for the lease of these huge LNG carriers, the finance ministry told AFP.
Europe, and Germany in particular, is counting on LNG to reduce its dependence on Russian imports after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Some 20 countries export this liquefied gas which is transported by ship, and whose 3 largest suppliers are Australia, Qatar and the US.
Liquefied to take up less space, the LNG is regasified on arrival for distribution.
The mobile terminals, known as Floating Storage Regasification Units, allow for converting LNG carried by a tanker into gas and injecting it into the pipeline network.
Last week European countries announced expanded efforts to wean themselves off Russian gas.
Russia is a major fossil fuel producer and accounted for around 45 per cent of the European Union's gas imports last year, but the bloc is under pressure to impose sanctions on oil and gas imports from Moscow.
In recent years, Germany has imported an average of 55 per cent of its gas from Russia via onshore pipelines.
This share was reduced to 40 per cent by the end of the first quarter of 2022, in favour of higher imports from the Netherlands, Norway and of LNG, according to the economy ministry.
Unlike several European countries, however, Germany does not have an onshore terminal to process imported liquefied gas.
For the time being, it relies on terminals in other EU countries, which limits its import capacity.
According to German media reports, the government is considering, in conjunction with private partners, the rental of 3 or 4 ships that would be positioned in North Sea or Baltic ports for this purpose.
Some of these facilities could be in operation by next winter.
The government does not consider it realistic to be able to do without Russian gas before mid-2024. AFP
News from: SPH DIGITAL NEWS ©2022 SPH MEDIA LIMITED. REGN NO. 202120748H
Additional information on Mozambique given by:
Sospeter Muhongo
EurGeol, CGeol
Date:
Saturday, 16.4.2022
US SHALE GAS GETS NEW MARKETS IN EUROPE
Preamble:
*The world's total proven natural gas reserves as of 1 January 2020, is estimated to be 7,257 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
*The world's share of that amount is as follows:
1. Russia: 24.3%
2. Iran: 17.3%
3. Qatar: 12.5%
4. USA: 5.3%
5. Saudi Arabia: 4.2%
What is shale gas?
This is one of the "unconvential sources" of natural gas trapped within the pores of shale formations (sedimentary rocks).
Shale gas resources are different from the "conventional" ones like those of Songo Songo, Mnazi Bay and Kiliwani North in Tanzania.
Extraction of shale gas from the tighter impermeable shale formations is through "horizontal drilling" and "hydraulic fracturing." This "fracking process" is harmful to the environment!
More than 50% of the identified shale gas resources outside USA are concentrated in 5 countries, namely, China, Canada, Algeria, Argentina and Mexico
USA: In 2000 shale gas accounted for only 1% of USA's natural gas production, by 2010 it was over 20% . The forecast shows that it might reach 46% of the USA's natural gas supply by 2035.
CURRENT USA - EU ENERGY BUSINESS
Please take note of the meeting of 6 April 2022 as reported by Liz Hampton in Denver (Edited by Gary McWilliams, Richard Pullin and Barbara Lewis)
US shale gas, LNG firms met European countries over supply crisis
At least a dozen U.S. shale gas executives on Wednesday held discussions with European energy officials on increasing U.S. fuel supplies to Europe as part of efforts to replace Russian imports.
At the meetings in Houston, foreign affairs, economic ministers and commercial buyers discussed how to lower their imports of Russian oil, coal and liquefied natural gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, trade group officials said.
The European Union plans to cut its reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds this year.
Delegations from Latvia and Estonia, diplomats from Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, and the United Kingdom toured the Golden Pass LNG export project in Sabine Pass, Texas, and later met in Houston with shale gas producers, Fred Hutchison, chief executive of trade group LNG Allies, said.
Group discussions included top executives from Chesapeake Energy (CHK.O), Coterra Energy (CTRA.N), EOG Resources (EOG.N) and EQT Corp (EQT.N), he said.
Individual meetings are planned between U.S. executives and Latvian, Estonian and Slovak commercial representatives.
"The situation in Europe is so precarious. All these countries that are dependent on Russian gas are committed to giving it up, in some cases completely," said Hutchison.
Building LNG capacity takes years and ample new supplies will not be available until mid-decade.
"The capacity challenges in 2022 are great but the opportunities in a few years are really terrific," he said.
The meeting, coordinated by the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC) along with LNG Allies, focused on ways to move Europe off Russian gas, including the need for more infrastructure in the United States and Europe, AXPC CEO Anne Bradbury said.
The need for new LNG plants was highlighted at a congressional hearing earlier on Wednesday by Pioneer Natural Resources Chief Executive Scott Sheffield.
He urged Congress to embrace the construction of new U.S. plants.
"We need to build LNG facilities in the northeast," Sheffield said.
Additional Information (Preamble) provided by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of America (HFGSA)
*Honorary Fellow of the Geological Society of London (HFGS)
*Honorary Research Fellow of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (HRFCAGS)
Date:
Saturday, 9.4.2022
RENEWABLE ENERGIES: GLOBAL WARMING AND THE ROAD TOWARDS ZERO-EMISSIONS BY 2050.
The main objective of the PARIS AGREEMENT of 2015 (adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015) and subsequent COP meetings, is to keep GLOBAL WARMING below 1.5 °C, mimicking the type of the atmosphere we had before the onset of the first industrial revolution (pre- industrial levels) which lasted from about 1760 to 1840.
However, scientists argue that to stay below 1.5 °C of Global Warming, emissions need to be cut by roughly 50% by 2030.
ENERGY TRANSITION is required to achieve the above goal as described by the Paris Agreement or UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
Energy Transition is the change in our (global) energy system. FOSSIL FUELS are the largest single source of CARBON EMISSIONS (greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide).
Thus, energy transition is the pathway for shifting from a system based on fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to one dominated by clean renewable energies which will make us meet our global climate targets.
Consequently, each nation has to drastically reduce concentration of GREENHOUSE GASES in the atmosphere at levels preventing global warming above 1.5 °C.
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
They are called renewable energies because they are NOT DEPLETED during the ENERGY GENERATION process - they are inexhaustible as energy is generated continously!
In broad definition of Renewable Energies, there are 5 main types, namely,
1. Solar
2. Wind
3. Geothermal
4. Biomass
5. Hydropower
However, if the above definition is taken in sensu stricto, and considering the method used to generate energy inexhaustibly, then we have 10 main types of Renewable Energies. They are:
1. Solar
2. Wind
3. Tides & Waves
4. Geothermal
5. Biomass
6. Biogas
7. Hydro
8. Radiant
9. Nuclear
10. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
According to International Energy Agency (IEA)'s April 2021 Global Energy Review, Renewable Energies' share of the global electricity generation mix increased to 29% in 2020, up from 27% in 2019.
Access to reliable and affordable electricity is vital for human wellbeing.
According to IAE, the Global Energy demand in 2021 increased by 4.6%. Almost 70% of the projected increase was in emerging markets and developing economies.
Some energy experts have recommended hydrogen to be utilized in the global energy transition.
HYDROGEN Energy is considered to be of high efficiency, low polluting fuel and can be used for transportation, heating and power generation. 1 kg of hydrogen contains 33.3 kWh of usable energy, whereas for the same amount (1 kg) of petrol and diesel hold approximately 12 kWh. However, in terms of volumetric energy density, hydrogen can not compete with liquid fuels.
TIDES and WAVES
Oceans cover 71% of the Earth's surface.
*The wave power contains far greater energy density than wind or solar. It generates up to 24-74 kW per meter of wave.
*The world's total wave resource is estimated to be as much as 2 terawatt (2 trillion watts) of energy - equivalent of world's electricity being consumed.
SOLAR and WIND hit a record 10% of global electricity generation in 2021. China has the largest solar energy capacity in the world of 204.7 GW (204,700 MW), about 3.9% of China's total energy consumption.
As of June 2021, China operates 7.9 GW (7,900 MW) of offshore wind power. It has the world’s largest onshore wind farm, located in Gansu Province. The site has a capacity to generate 7,965 MW (7.97 GW) of energy.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) argue that if the world has to achieve the 1.5°C limit scenario, and complete decarbonize the global electricity sector by 2050, then the following ought to be done:
*Installed Renewable Energies capacity would need to increase to 10,770 GW by 2030, and 27,800 GW by 2050
*Solar PV will need to be scaled up to 5,200 GW by 2030
*Wind to be scaled up to over 3,300 GW by 2030.
The ongoing RUSSIA-UKRAINE war has compelled many nations around the world to look into their respective ENERGY MIXES, some negating much reliance on imported OIL & GAS energy sources and increasing the usage of RENEWABLE ENERGIES. Moreover, they (renewables) are clean and will make us meet our global climate targets before 2050.
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Former Vice President of the Commission of the Geological Map of the World (CGMW)
*Former Chair of the Science Programme Committee of the UN-proclaimed International Year of Planet Earth (UN-IYPE)
*Former Chair of UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP Scientific Board of International Geoscience Programme
Date:
Sunday, 3.4.2022
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY - INCREASING COAL DEMANDS
COP 26, Glasgow, UK: The “Glasgow Climate Pact” will speed up the pace of climate action. All countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their current emissions targets to 2030, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2022. This will be combined with a yearly political roundtable to consider a global progress report and a Leaders summit in 2023.
COAL FOR POWER GENERATION
*A standard 500 megawatt coal power plant produces 3.5 billion kWh per year, which is enough energy to power 4 million light bulbs all year. To power most of a household's electrical appliances for a year it would take around 2,154.6 kilograms of coal.
*September 2021: China is the largest consumer of coal in the world. In 2020, the country consumed 4.14 billion short tons of coal. India and the United States followed as the second and third-largest consumers, at some 932.2 and 650.3 million short tons, respectively.
COAL RESERVES IN THE WORLD
*31 December 2020: Estimates of total world proved recoverable reserves of coal were about about 1.16 trillion short tons, and five countries have about 75% of the world's proved coal reserves.
The 5 countries are:
(1) United States – 249 billion tonnes.
(2) Russia – 162 billion tonnes
(3) Australia – 149 billion tonnes
(4) China – 142 billion tonnes
(5) India – 106 billion tonnes
UTILIZATION OF COAL - LATEST NEWS FROM CHINA
Bloomberg News, March 14, 2022: (with assistance by Alfred Cang, and Qian Chen)
China Seeks to Cut Reliance on Coal Imports With Mining Boom
The National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC), the nation’s top economic planner
aims to increase output capacity by 300 million tons
Country sets target of 620 million tons of coal reserves
China plans a massive increase in coal mining, a move that will dramatically reduce its reliance on imports and deal a blow to its near-term climate actions.
NDRC wants to boost domestic production capacity by about 300 million tons.
It also plans to build a 620 million-ton stockpile of the fuel split between government, miners and users.
Such an increase in output would cut the country’s already scant dependence on foreign imports after global prices hit record levels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The measures also highlight concerns that China’s reliance on fossil fuels remains as entrenched as ever, as it seeks to enhance energy security to limit disruptions to economic growth, regardless of the impact on its climate goals.
It’s hard to overstate the importance to China of coal, the most-polluting fossil fuel. The nation produces and consumes more than half of global supply, and it’s the biggest contributor to its world-leading greenhouse gas emissions.
China has said that coal consumption should begin to fall off in the second half of this decade as it strives to peak emissions across the economy by 2030.
The production increase would be split, with 150 million tons of capacity coming from new, upgraded operations and another 150 million from open-pit mines and some mines that had previously been shut.
Daily output should average 12.6 million tons, according to the NDRC, which is even higher than the record-breaking levels reached in the fall after shortages caused widespread industrial brownouts.
The NDRC didn’t give a timeline for the ramp-up, but if last year’s all-out push on production is anything to go by, it could happen relatively quickly.
The added 300 million tons of capacity is equivalent to China’s typical annual imports. The nation produced over 4 billion tons of its own coal last year.
The stockpiles would be split between several sectors:
The national government would contribute 70 million tons
Local governments would hold 150 million tons
Power plants would have 200 million tons
Coal mines would have 100 million tons
Other large users would have 100 million tons
The new edicts on supply follow other measures intended to guarantee a smoothly running power system, which still relies on coal for about 60% of its needs.
The government has ordered mines and power plants to sign medium and long-term contracts for 100% of their generation, and will enforce a price range of between 570 and 770 yuan a ton for those supplies.
The NDRC also announced several other plans at the meeting:
The third batch in a massive build-out of desert solar and wind projects will be announced soon, with priority given to developments backed by coal power that allow for continuous generation
GLOBAL ENERGY SHORTAGE - where is the Afica's coal?
Reports read as follows:
"With roughly 4.9% of the global coal reserve concentrated in South Africa, coal mining in Africa hasn't grown to become a large revenue-earning industry for the continent.
South Africa holds 35,053 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016, ranking 8th in the world
GLOBAL ENERGY MIX is in the offing!
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Honorary Research Fellow of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences
*Former Chair of the Science Programme Committee of the UN-proclaimed International Year of Planet Earth (UN- IYPE)
*Former Chair of UNESCO-IUGS-IGCP Scientific Board of International Geoscience Programme.
Date:
Monday, 14.3.2022
FOSSIL FUELS - RECENT JUMP OF PRICES TO RECORD HIGH
Depending on your market, the today's price of OIL & GAS ranges are as follows:
CRUDE OIL
US$ 107-130 per barrel
NATURAL GAS
US$ 3.6-4.7 per MMBtu (Metric Million British Thermal Unit)
RECENT NEWS
*BBC: Electricity and gas bills for a typical household (UK) will go up by £693 a year in April, a 54% increase.
OPEC Secretary General: There is no capacity to replace Russia's 7 million barrels of oil per day
USA: will release 60 million barrels of oil from reserves to avoid energy shortage.
OECD countries: are releasing 60 million barrels of oil – an equivalent of 12 days of Russian exports – from their strategic reserves to the market.
FORECASTS BEFORE THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
*1 October 2021: Natural Gas demand is projected to increase from 64.2 million boe/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2020 to 85.7 million boe/d in 2045, the Saudi-led cartel said in its 15th Annual World Oil Outlook (WOO).
*21 Feb 2022: Overall global LNG demand is expected to cross 700 million mt/year by 2040, a 90% increase on 2021 demand, SHELL, said
*The global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased to 380 million tonnes during 2021 as many countries rebounded from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to SHELL’s latest annual LNG Outlook.
AFRICA OUGHT TO INCREASE ITS SHARES IN THE GLOBAL NATURAL GAS TRADE
The top 10 African countries with large Natural Gas reserves:
- Nigeria 206.53 tcf
2. Algeria 159.1 tcf
3. Senegal 120 tcf
4. Mozambique 100 tcf
5. Egypt 77.2 tcf
6. Tanzania 57.54 tcf
7. Libya 53.1 tcf
8. Angola 13.5 tcf
9. Congo (Brazzaville) 10.1 tcf
10. Equatorial Guinea 5 tcf
NB: Africa - The ongoing exploration or unreported discoveries of new natural gas reserves will change the above reported quantities.
AFRICA'S PRODUCTION & EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS
In 2020, ALGERIA produced 85 billion cubic metres (bcm), was followed by Egypt producing 62.1 bcm
Russia's production was 47,805 billion cubic metres (bcm), being the first in the world, followed by Iran (33,721 bcm), Qatar (24,072 bcm), USA (15,484 bcm) and Saudi Arabia (9,200 bcm)
MOZAMBIQUE TO START LNG PRODUCTION OF LNG THIS YEAR (2022)
Recent News from Mozambique: The country has two major projects for production and export of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the Rovuma Basin, Cabo Delgado province. They are:
(1) Coral Sul gas field FLOATING LNG project in Area 4. ENI (Italy) and its partners aim at producing 3.4 Mtpd (3.4 metric tonnes per day). BP has entered into a long- term contract to purchase all of it!
*Latest Information on this FLOATING LNG plant is attached herewith. The pre-commissioning activities are planned to continue until June 2022.
(2) Golfinho-Atum gas field (Area 1), TotalEnergies (France) and partners aim at producing 13.1 Mtpd. It is now reported that the project is on track to deliver LNG in 2024.
BREAKING NEWS
BBC (today, 17.33 hrs): HE President Emmanuel Macron (France) has just announced, at a 2-day EU Summit, that EUROPE plans not to rely on Russia's OIL & GAS by 2027!
It is very important for us to follow very closely the different episodes of investments, production and trade of oil & gas around the world.
Contribution by:
Sospeter Muhongo
*Former President of the Geological Society of Africa
*Former Vice President of the Commission of the Geological Map of the World (CGMW)
*Editor-Chief Emeritus of the Journal of African Earth Sciences, Elsevier
Date:
Friday, 11.3.2022